Classification of phenomena

Prediction

Sun
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Solar flare 1 Quiet Solar flare of class C or greater is not expected.
2 Eruptive C class solar flare is expected.
3 Active M class solar flare is expected.
4 Major Flares X class solar flare is expected.
Solar proton 1 Quiet Proton flux (≧10MeV) is expected less than 10 PFU.
2 Warning condition Proton flux (≧10MeV) of 10 PFU or more may be possible.
3 Event in progress Proton flux (≧10MeV) is expected 10 PFU or more.
Magnetosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Geomagnetic disturbance 1 Quiet Maximum K index less than 4 is expected at Kakioka, Japan.
2 Active Maximum K index 4 is expected at Kakioka, Japan.
3 Minor storm Maximum K index 5 is expected at Kakioka, Japan.
4 Major storm Maximum K index 6 is expected at Kakioka, Japan.
5 Severe storm Maximum K index 7 or greater is expected at Kakioka, Japan.
Radiation belt electrons 1 Low 24-h electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is less than 3.8 x 107 [/cm2 sr]
2 Moderate 24-h electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 107 and less than 3.8 x 108 [/cm2 sr]
3 High 24-h electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 108 and less than 3.8 x 109 [/cm2 sr]
4 Extreme 24-h electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 109[/cm2 sr]
Ionosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Ionospheric storm *1 1 Quiet Active ionospheric storm is not expected over Japan.
2 Active Ionospheric storm scale of IP2 (more than reference value +3σ and equal to or less than reference value +5σ) or IN2 (equal to or more than reference value -3σ and less than reference value -2σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more is expected over Japan.
3 Severe Ionospheric storm scale of IP3 (more than reference value +5σ) or IN3 (less than reference value -3σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more is expected over Japan.
Dellinger phenomenon 1 Quiet Low probability of Dellinger phenomenon (less than ~30%).
2 %Moderate Moderate probability of Dellinger phenomenon (~30 - ~50%).
3 %High High probability of Dellinger phenomenon (≥~50%).
Sporadic E-layer 1 Quiet The sporadic-E (Es) layer is not expected to occur over Japan.
Level 2 does not exist.
3 Severe The sporadic-E (Es) layer is expected to occur over Japan.

Current status

 *2 Due to automatic scaled data, it may differ from actual condition.
Sun
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Solar flare 1 Quiet Latest X ray flux is less than 10-6 [W/m2].
2 Eruptive Latest X ray flux is 10-6 [W/m2] or more to less than 10-5 [W/m2].
3 Active Latest X ray flux is 10-5 [W/m2] or more to less than 10-4 [W/m2].
4 Major Flares Latest X ray flux is 10-4 [W/m2] or more.
Solar proton 1 Quiet Latest proton flux (≧10MeV) is less than 10 PFU.
Level 2 does not exist.
3 Event in progress Latest proton flux (≧10MeV) is 10 PFU or more.
Magnetosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Geomagnetic disturbance 1 Quiet Latest K index at Kakioka, Japan is less than 4.
2 Active Latest K index at Kakioka, Japan is 4
3 Minor storm Latest K index at Kakioka, Japan is 5
4 Major storm Latest K index at Kakioka, Japan is 6
5 Severe storm Latest K index at Kakioka, Japan is 7 or greater
Radiation belt electrons 1 Low Laset 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is less than 3.8 x 107 [/cm2 sr]
2 Moderate Latest 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 107 and less than 3.8 x 108 [/cm2 sr]
3 High Latest 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 108 and less than 3.8 x 109 [/cm2 sr]
4 Extreme Latest 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES is higher than 3.8 x 109 [/cm2 sr]
Ionosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Ionospheric storm *3, *4 1 Quiet Active ionospheric storm is not occurring over Japan.
2 Active Ionospheric storm scale is IP2 (more than reference value +3σ and equal to or less than reference value +5σ) or IN2 (equal to or more than reference value -3σ and less than reference value -2σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more over Japan.
3 Severe Ionospheric storm scale is IP3 (more than reference value +5σ) or IN3 (less than reference value -3σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more over Japan.
Dellinger phenomenon *3 1 Quiet Dellinger phenomenon is not occurring over Japan.
Level 2 does not exist.
3 Active Dellinger phenomenon is occurring over Japan.
Sporadic E-layer *3 1 Quiet Es layer is not occurring over Japan (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) is below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level) .
2 Slightly Active Latest foEs is between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more over Japan.
3 Severe Latest foEs is 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more over Japan.
Sporadic E-layer
(Wakkanai)
1 Quiet Es layer is not occurring (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) is below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level) .
2 Slightly Active Latest foEs is between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
3 Severe Latest foEs is 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
Sporadic E-layer
(Kokubunji)
1 Quiet Es layer is not occurring (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) is below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level) .
2 Slightly Active Latest foEs is between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
3 Severe Latest foEs is 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
Sporadic E-layer
(Yamagawa)
1 Quiet Es layer is not occurring (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) is below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level) .
2 Slightly Active Latest foEs is between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
3 Severe Latest foEs is 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
Sporadic E-layer
(Okinawa)
1 Quiet Es layer is not occurring (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) is below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level) .
2 Slightly active Latest foEs is between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more.
3 Severe Latest foEs is 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more.

Trend levels

 *5 Due to automatic scaled data, it may differ from actual condition.
Sun
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Solar flare 1 Quiet Maximum solar flare was A or B class.
2 Eruptive Maximum solar flare was C class.
3 Active Maximum solar flare was M class.
4 Major Flares Maximum solar flare was X class.
Solar proton 1 Quiet Maximum proton flux (≧10MeV) was less than 10 PFU.
Level 2 does not exist.
3 Event occurred Maximum proton flux (≧10MeV) was 10 PFU or more.
Magnetosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Geomagnetic disturbance 1 Quiet Maximum K index at Kakioka, Japan was less than 4.
2 Active Maximum K index at Kakioka, Japan was 4.
3 Minor storm Maximum K index at Kakioka, Japan was 5.
4 Major storm Maximum K index at Kakioka, Japan was 6.
5 Severe storm Maximum K index at Kakioka, Japan was 7 or greater.
Radiation belt electrons 1 Low 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES was less than 3.8 x 107 [/cm2 sr]
2 Moderate 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES was higher than 3.8 x 107 and less than 3.8 x 108 [/cm2 sr]
3 High 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES was higher than 3.8 x 108 and less than 3.8 x 109 [/cm2 sr]
4 Extreme 24-hour electron fluence (≧ 2 MeV) observed by GOES was higher than 3.8 x 109 [/cm2 sr]
Ionosphere
Items Lv. Text Explanation
Ionospheric storm *6, *7 1 Quiet Active ionospheric storm did not occur over Japan.
2 Active Ionospheric storm scale was IP2 (more than reference value +3σ and equal to or less than reference value +5σ) or IN2 (equal to or more than reference value -3σ and less than reference value -2σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more over Japan.
3 Severe Ionospheric storm scale was IP3 (more than reference value +5σ) or IN3 (less than reference value -3σ) with a duration of 2 hours or more over Japan.
Dellinger phenomenon *6 1 Quiet Dellinger phenomenon did not occur over Japan.
Level 2 does not exist.
3 Active Dellinger phenomenon occurred over Japan (Maximum fmin of more than "reference value +3.5 MHz“ or black out associated with solar flare(s)).
Sporadic E-layer *6 1 Quiet Es did not occur over Japan (Latest Es layer critical frequency (foEs) was below "Active" or “Slightly Active" level).
2 Slightly active foEs was between 4.5 MHz and 8 MHz with a duration of 15 minutes or more over Japan.
3 Severe foEs was 8 MHz or more with a duration of 15 minutes or more over Japan.