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Space Weather Forecast
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X-ray flux

high-energy proton flux

high-energy electron flux

Bz/|B| (nT)

sector

V (km/s)

N (p/cc)

magneto pause

Mach number

B 1.19

1.76e-01

1.41e+05

0.0/4.7

(-)

525.4

2.0

11.8

7.3


Space Weather Forecast Our forecasts are valid within 24 hours after issue.  
   Quiet    Active    Quiet



*Daily forecast from Japanese center (updated everyday)

*Week forecast from Japanese center (updated on Tuesday and Friday)

*Present forecasts from ISES centers

*Evaluation of forecasts

*Yearly occurrence number of flares

(Remark 1) Radius of geo-synchronous orbit is approximately 6.6 times of Earth radius , Re (6,378km).
(Remark 2) |B| is magnetic intensity of solar wind, Bz is north-south component of magnetic field of solar wind. Southward IMF with long-duration causes a geomagnetic disturbance.
(Remark 3) Solar wind is supersonic flow as shown in above table (Mach number).
(Remark 4) Condition of high-energy electron flux is defined as below:
low (less than 10**3):green
high (more than or equal to 10**3 and less than 10**4):yellow
very high (more than or equal to 10**4 and less than 10**5):red
extremely high (more than or equal to 10**5):red


DSCOVR data
GOES SEM data
K-index of Magnetic Observatory Kakioka

Explanation on Forecast

Our forecasts are valid within 24 hours after issue.

Flare forecast Definition
Quiet Probability of C-class flares is less than 50 %.
Eruptive Probability of C-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %.
Active Probability of M-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %.
Major flares expected Probability of X-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %.

Geomagnetic activity forecast Definition
Quiet All K-index is less than 4.
Active K-index 4 is expected.
Mainor storm K-index 5 is expected.
Major magstorm expected. K-index 6 is expected.
Severe magstorm expected. K-index 6 or grater are expected.

Proton forecast Definition
Quiet No proton event occurs.
Event in progress  
Major proton event expected  

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