(Remark 1) Radius of geo-synchronous orbit is approximately 6.6 times of Earth radius , Re (6,378km).
(Remark 2) |B| is magnetic intensity of solar wind, Bz is north-south component of magnetic field of solar wind. Southward IMF with long-duration causes a geomagnetic disturbance.
(Remark 3) Solar wind is supersonic flow as shown in above table (Mach number).
(Remark 4) Condition of high-energy electron flux is defined as below:
- low (less than 10**3):green
- high (more than or equal to 10**3 and less than 10**4):yellow
- very high (more than or equal to 10**4 and less than 10**5):red
- extremely high (more than or equal to 10**5):red
ACE/EPAM data
GOES SEM data
K-index of Magnetic Observatory Kakioka
Explanation on Forecast
Our forecasts are valid within 24 hours after issue.
| Flare forecast |
Definition |
| Quiet |
Probability of C-class flares is less than 50 %. |
| Eruptive |
Probability of C-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %. |
| Active |
Probability of M-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %. |
| Major flares expected |
Probability of X-class flares is more than or equal to 50 %. |
| Geomagnetic activity forecast |
Definition |
| Quiet |
All K-index is less than 4. |
| Active |
K-index 4 is expected. |
| Mainor storm |
K-index 5 is expected. |
| Major magstorm expected. |
K-index 6 is expected. |
| Severe magstorm expected. |
K-index 6 or grater are expected. |
| Proton forecast |
Definition |
| Quiet |
No proton event occurs. |
| Event in progress |
|
| Major proton event expected |
|
|
